It is the middle of February and as I look out my window instead of snow and ice I see green grass and even anticipate a robin or two. As far back as I can remember I do not recall a winter that has been as dry and warm as this one; and now the evening news just confirmed it - the Nation, on average, was 4.3 degree warmer than ever recorded! With the opening of the Hudson River striped bass season less than a month away it appears that the weather will remain the same. What impact will this have on the spring migration of the striped bass? Perhaps very little, but let's look at some of the variables that play a big role in the migration and spawning. Water temperature is one that has a controlling influence over these fish. Take a look around your home if you lived in the Hudson Valley. Perhaps you have tulips that break through the soil each spring - I do, and I have noticed they are now up out of the soil at least two or three inches! A maple in my front yard is dripping sap and New York farmers that collect it for maple syrup are already tapping trees. Are all these telling us that the stripers will be in the river earlier that usual? Will they spawn earlier? Will they leave earlier?

There has been no ice on the river all winter which will allow water temperature to rise more rapidly as the air temperature and sun need not expend energy to melt the ice. Little or no snowpack in the mountains will also reduce run off. This can be beneficial to the boater and fisherman in the spring as it will reduce debris in the water and turbidity. It is certainly does not bode well for those of us that rely on wells or for the reservoirs that supply New York City.

One of the "old timers" in my boatyard has always said that when the forsythia are in bloom the herring are in the river - well get ready, because it looks like they will be blooming much earlier that usual. Once the herring are in the stripers are in heavy as well.

Even as a biologist, I cannot predict, with certain, the events that will occur in the future; what I can do, however, is make observations and hypothesize. The true test will come within the weeks to follow. My guess? I am focusing more on early April this season and the boat is ready to go!